According to the timetable released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), campaigns for presidential and National Assembly elections will begin on September 28, 2022 while that of governorship and state houses of assembly will commence on October 12, 2022. Therefore, the long awaited campaigns for the 2023 presidential election begin in 4 days. All the parties fielding candidates in the election, especially the four major political parties: APC, PDP, LP and NNPP are already mobilizing for the heat ahead.
In fact, from all indications, next year’s presidential election is going to be not just the most contested in the history of Nigeria but more importantly, the election with capacity to throw the country into crisis if tribal and religious rhetorics are not moderated. There are at least four reasons for these:
- The Incumbent is not Contesting
Power of incumbency in Nigerian politics, especially in presidential elections is enormous. It gives any sitting president seeking re-election many advantages over his opponents. This clearly played out in the 2019 presidential election, where President Mohammadu Buhari in spite of his abysmal performances still won reelected. The fact that Buhari is not contesting increases the opportunities of the other candidates and will make them and their supporters more determined in the campaigns.
- Atiku and Tinubu’s Factor
Atiku and Tinubu are political heavyweights in Nigeria with almost limitless capacity to mobilize and deploy resources across the length and breadth of the country for the election. This is definitely going to affect both the campaign and the outcome of the election. It will make 2023 campaigns one of a kind. While these two heavyweights will be slogging out, the other candidates will also be fighting hard to increase their chances.
- High Degree of Frustration Among the Youths
From independence in 1960, Nigeria has never had it right in leadership. However, there is never a time in Nigerian history when the youths are as frustrated and disenchanted with the country’s leadership as they are today. This frustration led to the ENDSARS protests, which unfortunately collapsed. The youths still dissatisfied with the outcome of ENDSARS have found in Mr. Peter Obi, a source of hope who will bring about the type of change they want to see in this country. Estimates have it that these youths are the majority of voters in all the 6 geopolitical zones of the country.
Most importantly, the youths most of whom have been out of school in the past 7 months due to the ongoing trade standoff between the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) and the Federal Government have come to see 2023 election as a battle between them and the political elite who the blame for almost all their woes. These youths have enormous capacity to mobilize for Mr. Peter Obi and are already doing so. This more than any other factor will make the 2023 presidential campaigns battle-like and chaotic. Remember that Tinubu and Atiku with their vast resources can equally mobilize youths across the country.
- Buhari’s Bigotry and Inefficiency
The founding fathers of Nigeria knew that the country’s greatest problem was its diversity and that the most effective way of dealing with the problem was to give each social grouping a sense of belonging. That was why “federal character” was emphasized in our constitution and the successive governments of this country have tried to abide by that principle even if imperfectly. There is no regime, including the army who rule by military fiat, who has broken the federal character principle in policies and appointments like the Mohammadu Buhari led administration.
This lack of implementation of the federal character principle and the accusation that the Buhari’s led administration is colluding with bandits to further the Fulani agenda in the country have made Christians and non-Fulani’s to see the presidency as a route to survival and self-preservation. Even before the commencement of the campaigns, Christians and non-Moslems are already mobilizing to vote for someone who the feel will protect their interest. While Christians are doing this, the Moslems are not idle creating the likelihood that religion will play a major role in the upcoming campaigns. We know how inflammatory religious issue can be in this country.
- The Ethnic Nature of the Major Candidates
The history of Nigeria shows that beside religion, the other major challenge facing the country is ethnicism. The first republic collapsed because of the inability of the key political actors in that republic to overcome their ethnic differences. The first coup d’état was motivated and executed along ethnic lines. The counter-coup, which snowballed into the civil war, was an ethnic coup and the civil war itself was an ethnic civil war.
Beside Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso who is currently considered the underdog among the four major contenders in the presidential election, the other three major ethnic groups that make up Nigeria is fielding a candidate in the presidential election. Here lies the danger. There is the likelihood that if extreme caution is not exercised, the presidential campaign will degenerate into ethnic rivalries and throw the country into unprecedented chaos.
Even as the campaigns are still 4 days away, there are ominous signs that the campaigns are already descending into ethnic rivalry, especially between the Igbo and the Yoruba. Tinubu as well as Obi has become subjects of attacks by their opponent’s ethnic supporters. Both camps are already ratcheting up sentiments and if no drastic step is taken, the situation will only get worse as we go into the campaigns.
Also, there are several moves in the north to de-market Mr. Obi based on his ethnicity. Many renowned northern politicians and Islamic clerics have accused him of being a grand patron of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPBO). It is claimed that the north cannot vote Obi because the north cannot trust an Igbo man or rather that voting him is like voting for Biafra. No less personality than the presidential candidate of NNPP, Alhaji Musa Kwankwaso said this openly on a national television. These are poisonous ethnic sentiments capable of turning the campaigns into ethnic conflicts.
Let us be clear, there is nothing wrong in puncturing or exposing the weaknesses of one’s opponent in a political campaign. In fact, doing that is an intrinsic part of the campaign stratagem. However, every country has its peculiarity and no go areas. A country like Nigeria, which has ethnicism, as its basic problem, should avoid ratcheting up ethnic sentiments that are capable of not only undermining the democratic process but destabilize the country. The purpose of the forthcoming election is to make Nigeria better.
Therefore, the campaigns should be issue-based especially on how to create employment for the multitude of unemployed, make power stable, improve the education system, deal with corruption and turn Nigeria from a consuming to a producing economy. We can do these without making these campaigns about who started the civil war, who hates who, who is the owner of Lagos etc. These primordial issues would take Nigeria nowhere. In the end, those who insist on toeing the ethnic line in 2023 presidential campaigns may end up winning the election only to discover that there is no united Nigeria to govern.
