Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the expansion of the country’s armed forces by 15,500 personnel, the fourth such increase this year, as Moscow’s advances in Ukraine remain limited after more than four and a half years of war.
The decree, signed on Sunday, sets the authorised strength of the Russian military at 2,441,630, including 1,550,500 service members. Combined with earlier orders issued in March, June and July, the measures have added 47,860 troops since the start of the year.
The Kremlin offered no public explanation for the latest increase or details on recruitment methods. The move coincides with heavy reliance on drones and long-range strikes by both sides and growing Ukrainian claims that Russia is preparing further mobilisation — assertions Moscow rejects as “disinformation.”
Andrei Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, described the decision as largely technical. “This is mostly a technical decision rather than a strategic shift. It is technical in the sense that another 15,000 will not change the conflict dynamics,” he told reporters. “As for a diplomatic solution, we are still far away from it.”
Ukraine expert Olena Halushka, a board member at the Anti-Corruption Action Centre in Kyiv, linked the expansion to Russia’s inability to achieve planned gains. “Last year, at the Anchorage summit, Putin continued to demand that Ukraine withdraw from the rest of the Donetsk region that Russia had failed to capture, likely claiming that Ukraine would soon lose those lands anyway. Yet a year afterwards, the situation on the battlefield today shows absolutely the opposite,” she said. “Putin’s latest decree is … likely not the last, and should be viewed in the context of Russia’s continuing efforts to expand the manpower available for a protracted war.”
Ukraine’s military has claimed Russian losses exceeded 300,000 in 2026, with more than 20,000 casualties reported in the first half of September alone. Those figures could not be independently verified.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday that more than 8,000 North Korean soldiers were already in Russia, with preparations underway for another 10,000. Estimates from Ukrainian and South Korean sources put the total number of North Korean troops deployed to support Russia since 2024 at between 14,000 and 15,000.
Defence analyst Alexey D. Muraviev of Edith Cowan University argued the increase is driven more by longer-term strategic concerns than immediate battlefield needs in Ukraine. “Putting things into place would require some time in terms of planning, in terms of recruitment, in terms of formation of new units, and that’s not going to address Russia’s immediate operational needs at the theatre of war,” he said. He pointed to tensions with NATO and security concerns in the Pacific involving Japan and the United States.
On the ground, Russian forces have intensified aerial attacks. At least 10 people were killed and more than 80 wounded in strikes across Ukraine on Monday, including a drone attack that hit the National Academy of Sciences in central Kyiv. Taras Shevchenko National University in the capital announced it would switch to remote classes until at least October 16 due to the security situation.
Ukrainian forces have reported limited gains in northern Donetsk, reclaiming territory in recent operations, though Russia continues to control the majority of the region it annexed in 2022 — a move not recognised internationally.
Diplomatic efforts remain stalled. Russia demands territorial concessions and an end to Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, while Kyiv rules out ceding land and seeks security guarantees. US envoys recently visited both capitals, and Washington has proposed technical-level talks that could involve the United Arab Emirates as a venue. Putin said last week that negotiation proposals remained “on the table.”
Halushka assessed that a diplomatic resolution remains distant while Moscow believes continuing the war is less costly than ending it.
