Bolsonaro leads Brazil first-round vote, sets up run-off with Lula

Right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro finished ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s presidential election first round on Sunday, forcing a run-off on October 25.

Bolsonaro, 45, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, secured 47 percent of the vote against Lula’s 45.1 percent. Neither candidate reached the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory.

“Brazil wants change, and I am very happy with the results,” Bolsonaro told reporters in Brasilia, hailing “the end of the era of [Lula’s] Workers’ Party.”

The outcome defied most pre-election polls that had projected a narrow lead for the 80-year-old Lula, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after his 2022 defeat.

Analysts said Bolsonaro is now the favourite to win the second round. Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, noted that candidates who finished second in the first round have not gone on to win the presidency in Brazil since 1989.

“Not only is he behind now after this first round, but the other candidates who received a total of nearly 8 percent are largely centre-right, which means that the people who voted for these other candidates are very unlikely to shift for Lula,” Stuenkel said. “So he must change his campaign tactics and above all mobilise a significant part of people who stayed at home.” About 21 percent of the electorate, or roughly 30 million voters, abstained.

Several members of the Bolsonaro family also won seats in Congress. Michelle Bolsonaro, wife of the former president, was elected to the Senate in the Federal District. Carlos Bolsonaro and Jair Renan Bolsonaro secured seats in the Senate and lower house respectively. The Liberal Party (PL) won 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies compared with 70 for Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT).

A Bolsonaro victory would have regional and geopolitical implications. Lula has clashed with US President Donald Trump, a supporter of the Bolsonaro camp. Flavio Bolsonaro has indicated he would seek closer ties with Washington and pursue a congressional amnesty for his father.

Vinicius de Carvalho, a lecturer in Brazilian studies at King’s College London, said Latin America has seen a right-wing shift in recent years. If Lula is re-elected, he would still need to respond to some demands from the right given the composition of Congress.