The Intricacies of the North-South Presidential Zoning System in Nigeria
Nigeria will have its presidential election next year. All eyes are on that election because of the enormous powers a president wields in Nigerian presidential system. The initial speculations had centered on the North-South divide and the argument was whether the president was going to come from the North or the South. Considering that the current president, Mohammadu Buhari was a northerner and based on what was believed to be a somewhat gentleman’s agreement for rotational presidency between the North and the South, Buhari’s successor was supposed to be a southerner. However, many from the North have suggested that the North-South zoning formula inflicts the system with mediocrity and should be discarded. Others have argued that since 1999 that democracy returned to Nigeria after the donkey years of military rules, there have been more years of Southern rule and consequently that a northerner should be allowed to succeed President Buhari to enable the North make up for the deficit years.
On the other side of the spectrum, southerners have argued that equality demands that a southerner be allowed take up the mantle of leadership in Nigeria after Buhari. This claim is consistently buttressed using the fact that the North has ruled the country for more number of years than the South especially during the military rules.
However, the choice of a Nigerian president from the South is more complex than one from the North. In spite of having many ethnic groups like the South, the North is more politically unified when it comes to political decisions, especially in the choice of presenting a consensus candidate for the presidency. The South is rather Balkanized as a result of having not just two major ethnic groups, but two rival ethnic groups who are always on collision course to outdo and harm each other’s interests. These rivalry and bickering have always complicated the presidency when it is zoned to the South but at no other time is that complication more obvious than in the present political dispensation.
The complication is symptomatic of a number of political permutations but the most obvious seems to be the presence of Ahmed Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. Speculation has it that Tinubu and Mohammadu Buhari in 2015 went into an agreement that the former would support the later while the later would support the former’s presidential ambition when the former’s two terms are completed. From the look of things, Tinubu has delivered his own side of the bargain and it is up to Buhari to fulfill his own part. The point therefore, is that Tinubu will not easily cede his presidential ambition to anybody considering the sacrifices he made to get Buhari elected. This seems to be the strongest argument from the Southwest.
The argument from the Southeast is that no Southerner – a zone inhabited by one of the three major ethnic groups in Nigeria – has ever ruled the country, not just within the current political dispensation but since the end of the Nigerian civil war. Many political commentators have seen this as a calibrated effort by the Nigerian ruling class from the Southwest and the North to exclude the Southeast from mainstream Nigeria politics. It has well been contended that such exclusion is what is fueling session agitations in the zone.
Apparently, many socio-political organizations, cultural groups, scholars and political activists from all over the country appear to have found the argument to allow the Southeast have its turn in the presidency more cogent than the arguments coming from the North and the Southwest. For instance, many political elites in the Southwest, Tinubu’s own zone, including AFENIFERE, social cultural group representing the zone have supported and clamoured for Igbo presidency. Their case is that equity but especially the unity of the country demands that an Igbo man should be giving a chance to rule Nigeria. Many, especially Pa Adebanjo has gone as far as arguing that Tinubu has been duly repaid for the roles he played in Buhari’s elections and in addition, that one person’s ambition should not be allowed to tier the country apart.
Many other groups in the North, in the Middle-belt and the Niger Delta have made similar calls arguing that now is the time to allow a man from Igbo extraction to rule Nigeria. Of interest in these calls is the position of the Niger Delta elder spokesman, Chief Edwin Clark. This is a man believed – whether rightly or wrongly – to have waged an ant-Igbo campaign for the greater part of his life. Today, Chief Clark is among the foremost forerunners of Igbo presidency. What has changed?
Is there an Igbo, Ndi Igbo and Nigerians Can Trust with the Presidency?
As already highlighted, there is a growing consensus among people from all walks of life in Nigeria that this is the time for an Igbo presidency. However, the one million man question is, do Ndi Igbo have such a man? If they do who is he?
Obviously, getting a Nigerian president of Igbo extraction is as complicated as getting a Southern Nigerian president. Now, one of the controversies is whether we should be talking about a Southeast Nigerian president or an Igbo Nigerian president? Extending and enlarging this question will include issues like whether Igbos from other geopolitical zones, especially the South-South zone are eligible to the context as Igbos from the Southeast or the race is exclusively reserved for the Southeast. Also, whether it is limited to the Southeast or expands to other zones that have native Igbos, who will be your choice? As the 2023 election draws closer, Angel Network News will engage in addressing these thorny questions that are of particular interest to Southeast, Ndi Igbo and Nigeria at Large.
