Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has reviewed the possibility of a US military attack on Canada, describing it as an “extreme tail risk” amid ongoing trade and political tensions with Washington.
In an interview with The New York Times published this week, Carney said examining such a scenario formed part of responsible governance. “That’s just risk management,” he stated. “It would be irresponsible not to.”
The comments come against a backdrop of strained Canada-US relations following the return of President Donald Trump to the White House. Trump has imposed successive tariffs on Canadian goods, including measures linked to fentanyl trafficking and a digital services tax, while repeatedly suggesting Canada would be better off as a US state.
Trump has also provocatively renamed Lake Ontario “Lake America.” Trade talks between the two countries collapsed in August, prompting reciprocal tariffs.
Carney’s government is seeking to reduce economic and security dependence on the United States. It is reviewing plans to purchase American F-35 fighter jets and aims to rely less on SpaceX’s Starlink service. Carney has recently visited Europe and the United Kingdom, welcoming an EU offer of associate membership and applying to join a UK-led military partnership.
Experts caution that a military conflict remains highly improbable. “A US attack on Canada remained somewhat unthinkable,” said Ty Solomon, a professor of international relations at the University of Glasgow.
Nevertheless, analysts note that Trump’s rhetoric has unsettled many Canadians and prompted Ottawa to consider even remote contingencies. Carney has emphasised the need for middle powers to strengthen alliances in a more assertive geopolitical environment, previously stating: “If we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.”
Despite the tensions, Carney said he continues to speak regularly with Trump and remains open to a trade agreement.
