Nigeria’s elite understand that their country is on the verge of becoming a failed state. Their response is less prescient. They believe that the international community would not allow such a fate to befall them. Their ill-informed position is that Nigeria has some strategic relevance to the rest of the world. This point was relevant when the U.S. needed Nigeria’s crude oil.
It is no longer so. The second ill-informed notion is that the world would not sit back and watch millions of Nigerians overrun the rest of West Africa or migrate to the West in the event of a collapse of the country. This point is not as true as it may seem at first glance. The West sat back as thousands were butchered in Rwanda. Most wars are fought for clear-eyed strategic interests and not necessarily for humanitarian reasons. The West Africa region holds little strategic importance to the world.
The key takeaway from the current debacle in Afghanistan is that everyone must shoulder their load. While the world may offer some help (for whatever reason), people must fight for the society they want to live in. The Afghan elite overdosed on the cool-aid. They thought they could continue to wallow in corruption while the U.S. sends its military to die on those barren and scorched earth. The elite thought they could latch on to the feeding bottle forever and do nothing but scratch their stomachs. Fallacious illusions. The reality is that, while the world may lend some help, all must learn to stand on their own feet and carry their own load.
As it is in Afghanistan, it is in Nigeria. Nigeria’s elite have suspended reality believing that their country has something of value to the world. It has none. The same fate awaits.
The Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP) – an international terrorist organisation similar to the Taliban – holds territory in Niger State which is a mere two hours drive to Abuja. No one seems to be perturbed. If they are, it is not apparent. There is no outrage or a realisation that many in Abuja could be like those poor souls running after that U.S. plane as it taxied to take off from Kabul airport. The false confidence that the U.S. would not allow ISWAP to overrun Abuja – if that day comes – was torn to shreds in Kabul. The assumption that Nigeria’s military would be able to defend a full-on ISWAP assault on Abuja is yet to be tested. May that day never come or it is with a sense of chagrin that Nigerians would realise that “hope is not a strategy.”
Afghanistan should be a wake-up call for all Nigerians. The judgment day will come. This infantile approach to development would catch up with the country. The over-dependence on foreign aid for development has created both intellectual and moral weakness. Will the country be ready when the chicks come home to roost? Or will the strategy remain the lazy exhortations of “it is not our portion?”
Countries get the fate they deserve. Nigeria can become Kabul if it remains on this path. There is a place for hope and prayers. There is a place for action. The simple first step is to register to vote. Get involved. Join a political party. Use your voice. Demand the society you deserve. Nigeria can become Kabul. It can also become Oslo. Or at least, the Nigeria dreamt by the Independence generation.
