Ukraine’s forces have around a month left to push back Russian troops from captured territory before the weather halts Kyiv’s progress, according to the U.S. military’s top soldier.
General Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the BBC on Sunday that Ukraine’s forces have between 30 to 45 days left of fighting before the fall weather conditions stop their advance.
Kyiv has been launching operations all along its front lines, stretching down from eastern Ukraine to the southern Russian-annexed regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. In recent weeks, attention has focused on progress in the south as Ukraine’s efforts yielded some success in the direction of the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol and, ultimately, the Sea of Azov.
“There’s still heavy fighting going on,” Milley said, adding that Ukraine was “still plugging away with steady progress.”
“There’s still a reasonable amount of time, probably about 30 to 45 days’ worth of fighting weather left, so the Ukrainians aren’t done,” Milley said. “They haven’t finished the fighting part of what they’re trying to accomplish,” he added.
But with progress slow, and the counteroffensive launched later than Ukraine had intended, worsening weather conditions and Ukraine’s muddy season, known as rasputitsa, could play against Kyiv’s hopes of reclaiming swathes of annexed territory.
This presents an added risk to Ukraine’s counteroffensive forces, as the Western-made main battle tanks may end up getting stuck in the quagmires, Marina Miron, a post-doctoral researcher at the War Studies Department at King’s College London, previously told Newsweek.
Ukraine said earlier this month that it was now between the first and second defensive lines” around the Zaporizhzhia village of Robotyne, and a Russian-backed official said Moscow’s forces had “tactically abandoned” the settlement.
There is a “realistic possibility” Kyiv troops could break through the rest of Russia’s defensive lines in southern Ukraine by the end of the year, Trent Maul, the director of analysis at the U.S.’s Defense Intelligence Agency, told The Economist in an article published on Wednesday.
Ukraine’s forces “made confirmed advances” around south Donetsk and western Zaporizhzhia on Saturday, according to the U.S. think tank, the Institute for the Study of War.
On Sunday, Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces were carrying out “defensive operations in the east and offensive operation in southern Ukraine,” and were working to “step by step liberate temporarily occupied territories.” Ukrainian soldiers “force the enemy to leave [an] occupied position” on the front line towards Melitopol, the General Staff said in a statement.
Newsweek has reached out to the General Staff via email for extra comment.
Ukrainian forces “continued unsuccessful attempts to break through” Russian defenses around Robotyne and Verbove, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Saturday.
Newsweek cannot independently verify battlefield reports.
“During fierce fighting in this area, more than 845 Ukrainian servicemen, 27 tanks and armored fighting vehicles, including the British-made Challenger tank and 25 vehicles, were destroyed,” Russia said in a statement. Up to 500 Ukrainian soldiers with the country’s 82nd Air Assault Brigade were killed or wounded in the past week, Moscow claimed.
Reports have suggested in recent weeks that the Challenger 2 main battle tanks were in play with Ukraine’s 82nd Air Assault Brigade in Robotyne. Earlier this week, footage appeared to show the first tank of that make taken out in Zaporizhzhia.
NEWSWEEK
