The president is the most powerful person in Nigeria. We are preparing to elect another “powerful” president and things are getting heated up as usual. The campaigns are gradually picking up. We are confronted with 18 choices. I believe four of them will corner over 95 percent of the votes, with the remaining ones settling for the rest. In my opinion, the leading candidates, in no particular order, are: Mr Peter Obi (Labour Party, LP), Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso (New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party, PDP), and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (All Progressives Congress, APC). Contrary to what many analysts say, I do not think the election will go into a run-off but I expect it to be competitive.
Now, if you were to vote today, what would determine your choice? What would settle the question of whom to vote for? It depends on how you are wired. There are about the four broad interests that determine how Nigerians vote: one, material; two, ideological; three, primordial; and four, political affinity. Some interests are fluid. The human society is dynamic. The entry of some candidates into the race appears to be altering the landscape, for good or for ill, and that will definitely play a role in the voting patterns. My job today is to make you identify where you belong in these four groups as a voter. You may not be as unbiased as you make people believe.
Those Motivated by Material Interest
Are you going to be motivated by “material” interest? We call it “stomach infrastructure”. Many Nigerian voters are basically “unattached”. It is the candidate that brings the rice, vegetable oil and cash that will get their votes. They do not make any pretence about it. I would not think that most voters are in this category because I do not have any data to back up my claim. Since loyal party members also collect “stomach infrastructure” at election times, it would be difficult to reach a scientific conclusion on who voted purely for material gains. More so, some voters will get “stomach infrastructure” from all the candidates and still vote for whom they want. Things are tricky here.
Those Motivated by Ideological Interest
Are you going to be motivated by “ideological” interest? Not every Nigerian believes all politicians are the same. Many voters still hold dearly to the ideals of how a society should run. They still believe that even if no Nigerian politician is “good enough”, some are better than the others. It’s like they see an ocean of candidates and are still able to point out one or two who appear to be more credible, decent and can lead the change that Nigerians so desire. In this group, you also have those who are so desirous of change that they create candidates in the image of a messiah and paint them to be what they are not. You cannot blame them — they just want to live in a better Nigeria.
Those Motivated by Primordial Interest
Are you going to be motivated by “primordial” interest? This covers ethnic, regional or religious emotions. Voters in this group are naturally programmed to choose people who speak their language, or come from their own part of the country, or share their religious beliefs. If they cannot find a strong candidate of their kinfolk on the ballot, they are likely to vote for whoever is “closest” to them — someone likely to serve their interests or who has often identified with them. This is group interest at play. In this election, religious sentiments will be the biggest determinant for the “primordial” voters. However, I think the implications of same-faith ticket will cut both ways.
Those Motivated by Affinity Interest
Are you going to be motivated by “affinity” interest? This is not so much about ethnic or religious affiliation, but historical political alliances and voting patterns. “Historical” does not mean 1914, by the way. It could be as recent as 2019. For voters of this tendency, they have an electoral bond which is not necessarily along the fault lines. They go where their allies or patrons direct them to go. After all, we run a patronage system. Performance is not usually an important factor here, save in exceptional circumstances. I am tempted to say it is the largest voting group in Nigeria but I will not go that far since “political affinity” could be fluid, served by “primordial” and “material” interests.
Indeed, there could be an element of all these interests in every category, just that they could be either dominant or recessive. Therefore, these categories are not mutually exclusive. They can overlap, depending on the political currents per time. Primordial interest and political affinity are often conjoined because they are very emotional in nature. Compare to “stomach infrastructure” and “ideology” which are mostly, if not always, rational choices. The stomach is fluid and based on “survival” for the moment, while ideology is a conviction. Nevertheless, “stomach infrastructure” can fail if voters’ ethnic, regional or religious emotions lie elsewhere. Money cannot easily sway them.
Have you identified where you belong? Or are you a “freelancer” like me? I am not a good example of a Nigerian voter. I have made up my mind that no matter who wins in 2023, orwhenever, no president can transform this country singlehanded. Certain things have to be in place for Nigeria to make significant progress. There are tough and painful decisions to be madeabout economic reforms, no matter who wins. In my freelance group, we are waiting to engage constructively with whoever Nigerians choose. We will put him on his toes and focus his attention on the matters that matter. I won’t become bitter, abusive and destructive if my preferred candidate does not win.
