Nobody knows when Vice President Yemi Osinbajo first thought of contesting the 2023 presidential election, whether the idea came from him independently or it was planted in him. But months ago, despite every attempt to dissuade him from going ahead with the project, including deploying moral, political and religious arguments, it was always clear that he would bite the bullet as well as chew the cud on it and cap it with a toast. His fervency on a subject that is at the best of times difficult and complex for even the most nonchalant of fellows was not infectious; it was bewildering. He knew his ambition would pit him against his mentor and former boss, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the ruling party’s national leader and former governor of Lagos State; and he also knew that many people would raise eyebrows, regardless of whether he sees him as mentor or not. Moral questions would be asked, and possibly too, religious questions, considering that the eminent professor is also a pastor. It must reflect either courage or lack of circumspection on his part to so blithely dispel his misgivings and forge ahead with his plans. Surely he must have some misgivings about his ambition despite putting his hand to the plough.

Even when Prof. Osinbajo acted for the president for months on end, few thought he would develop the ambition to succeed his boss. He has, probably because he sees himself, in the words of his political assistant Babafemi Ojudu when explaining his volte face, that his association with Asiwaju Tinubu was mutually beneficial, a political and social symbiosis from which primeval well both giant brains took life-sustaining drink. It is difficult to find other plausible explanations. The vice president is egged on by a few well-connected persons and many others who resent the former Lagos governor. Now, the die is cast, and the presidential primary will in a matter of weeks decide whether his ambition will gain traction or not. It is also not known whether he has weighed the consequences of failing to clinch the nomination, or whether any other thought besides winning the nomination had crossed his mind.

At the other end of the spectrum, another pastor, Tunde Bakare, claims to have received prophetic message that he would be Nigeria’s 16th president/head of state. Prof. Osinbajo’s ambition stands on one visible leg; that of Pastor Bakare stands on no visible leg at all. However, like another pastor, Kris Okotie of the Household of God Church who ran for president a whopping four times, both Prof. Osinbajo and Pastor Bakare may in fact believe they are standing on invisible celestial legs unobvious to the human eye and comprehension. Neither of the two gentlemen has a political structure; if nominated, they will hope to rely on the ruling party structure, the kind that propelled ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) into his 1999 win. If it worked in 1999, could it work again in 2023? It is unlikely; but that is where the ecclesiastical convictions of the two pastors come in. Both men incredibly appear assured of victory, in the same way Pastor Okotie asserted with all vehement dubiety that God had ordered him to contest the presidency on the four occasions he vied and failed.

Nigerians are not only curious, they are also sceptical. They are unsure of the humbug about God asking anyone to contest, as the serial failures of those who attributed their secular longings to God’s mandate have proved. Nigerians instead find it disconcerting that these pastors, having not paid their political dues but merely relied on their eloquence, seek to insinuate their ambitions to God, belittling Him with a capacity and willingness to reward slothfulness. Politicians plant, water, and then hope God or nature, depending on their beliefs, would give the increase. Nigeria’s ecclesiastical politicians evade planting, skip watering, and are conjuring increases in the same way prosperity doctrine has been perverted within the iniquitous world system. Set against the background of recent church involvement in politics, complete with indescribable theological justifications, the pastors wait for promotion to the presidency. Prof. Osinbajo’s membership of the APC is of course taken for granted. On the other hand, few knew about Pastor Bakare’s membership of the ruling party. As one of Nigeria’s prominent pastors, and seeing how engaged he is in ecclesiastical duties at the highest level, not many Nigerians expect that he would combine his calling with partisan politics.

Despite his enthusiasm and the zeal that heralded his declaration of interest, Prof. Osinbajo’s presidential ambition will be hamstrung by many obstacles and considerations. His expectations that certain forces within the party would cobble a consensus in his favour and give him the nomination on a platter will remain a chimera. Not only will there not be a consensus in producing the party’s presidential candidate, notwithstanding the galling example of the party’s chairmanship election outcome last month, party politics is far more intricate and interwoven than the vice president imagines. Pastor Bakare’s ‘Project 16’ presidential bid is even far more illusory and is hinged only on expectations of God’s intervention and imposition. Yet, he has not convinced anyone that God is as indulgent as he, a pastor, pronounces on politics with Old Testament exegetical liberty. In short, neither of the two gentlemen has done enough, prepared enough, or outthought every other person enough to get the nomination, let alone win the votes of Nigerians scarified by the lethal intrusion of religion into politics. They have had to contend with the proselytizing zeal of the incumbent, not to say his disruptive and contaminative messianism, and have had it up to their gills. From now on and for the foreseeable future, they will yearn for a confirmed secularist and liberal, not another zealot.