US officials believe there are signs that Iranian leadership is nervous about some of the actions of its proxy groups in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, according to multiple people familiar with US intelligence, as attacks from militia groups threaten to disrupt the global economy and significantly up the risk of direct confrontation with the United States.
The drone attack that killed three American soldiers at a US outpost in Jordan, which the US has attributed to the Iran-backed umbrella group Islamic Resistance in Iraq, caught Tehran by surprise and worried political leadership there, officials told CNN, citing US intelligence.
Iran-backed militants have launched over 160 attacks on US forces since October. And while Iran has long funded, equipped, and trained its proxy militias in the region with the goal of attacking Americans, the strike from this past weekend was the first to kill US service members since the near daily assaults began four months ago.
US intelligence also suggests that Iran is concerned that attacks from Houthi militants in Yemen on commercial shipping in the Red Sea could upset the economic interests of both China and India, key Iranian allies.
Officials cautioned that there is no sense that Tehran’s growing wariness is likely to change its broader strategy of supporting proxy attacks on US and Western targets — although it could signal adjustments around the margins. But officials do believe that Iran is pursuing a calibrated approach to the conflict that is designed to avoid sparking all-out war.
Officials declined to provide further detail on the intelligence, citing its sensitivity. But the US has traditionally been able to obtain intelligence on Iran through a variety of methods including recruiting human spies and eavesdropping on Iranian communications.
The Biden administration is weighing options for how to respond to the recent attack in Jordan, which could involve strikes on Iranian assets in the region — but striking inside Iran itself is highly unlikely, officials said, since the US is not seeking a direct war with Iran, the White House has said.
CNN
